* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 42 38 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 40 41 42 43 44 44 44 42 38 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 39 39 38 38 37 36 35 34 32 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 11 9 8 9 11 11 15 17 17 12 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -2 -2 -2 -1 -1 1 0 4 9 9 SHEAR DIR 75 82 106 117 113 105 119 69 64 95 113 124 97 SST (C) 26.4 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 127 129 128 126 124 123 123 122 122 123 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.0 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.1 -51.9 -52.2 -51.3 -51.8 -51.1 -51.6 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 51 53 55 56 58 63 65 64 61 58 55 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 33 44 45 42 37 23 27 38 50 69 102 109 86 200 MB DIV 27 38 29 5 19 20 28 34 29 54 18 51 31 700-850 TADV 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 1 4 4 0 0 -4 LAND (KM) 1910 2001 2093 2164 2236 2240 2154 2121 2110 2108 2080 2118 2198 LAT (DEG N) 17.6 17.3 17.0 16.7 16.4 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.2 LONG(DEG W) 130.0 130.9 131.7 132.3 132.9 133.9 134.7 135.0 135.1 135.1 135.3 134.9 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 7 6 6 4 3 1 0 1 1 3 4 HEAT CONTENT 10 2 1 3 7 14 7 8 8 16 10 9 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 2. -2. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 35.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##