* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/18/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 34 37 42 48 59 64 66 66 64 62 57 52 V (KT) LAND 30 34 37 42 48 59 64 66 66 64 62 57 52 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 37 39 42 43 44 43 42 41 38 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 12 14 15 18 13 10 14 7 6 7 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 -3 0 -3 -4 -3 -5 -3 -2 -1 -1 -7 SHEAR DIR 56 58 53 86 82 63 113 85 109 108 151 194 209 SST (C) 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.2 27.9 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.5 24.7 23.2 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 150 149 147 145 141 137 131 126 122 117 110 96 80 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 -51.3 -51.9 -50.9 -51.4 -50.6 -51.1 -50.1 -50.7 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 76 77 77 75 72 68 63 60 58 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 18 21 24 25 26 27 28 28 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 51 58 62 75 87 98 105 102 144 143 129 100 83 200 MB DIV 60 65 54 69 102 105 56 58 78 28 15 -22 0 700-850 TADV -2 -3 -4 0 0 -5 -1 -1 -3 -3 2 1 4 LAND (KM) 1004 1033 1066 1092 1110 1103 1051 1001 949 892 827 808 873 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 116.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 7 10 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 24 16 14 13 13 11 5 2 4 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 16. 19. 20. 21. 20. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 2. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 5. 10. 13. 15. 16. 18. 17. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 12. 18. 29. 34. 36. 36. 34. 32. 27. 22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 116.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 16.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##