* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 39 39 39 40 41 40 41 38 40 38 36 V (KT) LAND 40 39 39 39 39 40 41 40 41 38 40 38 36 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 39 39 38 37 37 36 35 34 33 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 11 9 7 8 10 11 19 16 14 17 15 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 -1 -1 -2 -3 -2 0 1 0 0 4 SHEAR DIR 87 110 125 118 105 113 90 63 79 69 94 88 88 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.3 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 127 128 128 128 129 127 125 124 122 120 123 123 121 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 -51.7 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 2 3 700-500 MB RH 54 56 57 59 62 64 66 62 59 54 50 45 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 15 15 15 16 16 17 17 19 17 18 18 17 850 MB ENV VOR 41 42 44 38 32 25 49 48 68 76 104 110 106 200 MB DIV 27 23 10 7 4 2 45 18 68 32 50 28 54 700-850 TADV 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 -1 1 0 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 2022 2105 2188 2249 2259 2165 2092 2037 1975 1952 1964 2024 2133 LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.0 16.6 16.5 16.3 16.3 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.4 17.0 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 131.1 131.8 132.5 133.1 133.7 134.6 135.3 135.8 136.4 136.6 136.5 135.8 134.6 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 2 0 2 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 1 2 3 7 7 7 7 5 1 1 1 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 35.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 3. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 0. 1. -2. 0. -2. -4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 27.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##