* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/18/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 44 52 56 59 60 59 58 58 53 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 44 52 56 59 60 59 58 58 53 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 31 32 33 35 35 35 35 35 34 34 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 14 18 17 10 10 9 9 6 7 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 -1 -2 -4 1 -2 0 -2 -2 -6 -2 -4 SHEAR DIR 53 73 74 74 75 95 68 79 97 123 182 220 225 SST (C) 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.5 24.4 22.9 21.4 POT. INT. (KT) 149 147 145 142 139 133 130 126 124 117 107 93 77 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.1 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 78 78 78 78 78 79 77 77 70 64 56 54 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 19 21 22 23 23 25 26 26 26 27 26 850 MB ENV VOR 44 45 63 76 81 84 77 86 119 129 124 125 105 200 MB DIV 60 38 44 84 103 79 51 58 50 22 42 -9 -14 700-850 TADV -6 0 -1 -2 -2 -3 -3 -4 -4 -3 0 0 2 LAND (KM) 1068 1112 1153 1148 1146 1091 1059 1015 971 914 850 887 965 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.6 16.9 17.8 18.4 19.1 20.0 21.4 23.0 25.1 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 117.1 117.8 118.5 119.0 119.4 119.7 119.9 120.0 120.2 120.7 121.6 123.4 125.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 6 8 11 14 15 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 16 15 14 9 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 518 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 20. 19. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 5. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 6. 9. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. 14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 22. 26. 29. 30. 29. 28. 28. 23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 114.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 65.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 64.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##