* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 40 39 39 38 38 40 40 40 41 42 40 35 V (KT) LAND 40 40 39 39 38 38 40 40 40 41 42 40 35 V (KT) LGE mod 40 40 40 40 40 39 38 37 36 35 35 35 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 8 8 4 12 14 19 13 17 12 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 0 0 1 6 2 SHEAR DIR 99 123 129 115 106 101 62 77 74 87 77 72 72 SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.4 26.2 26.1 26.1 26.2 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 125 124 125 126 124 121 119 119 122 121 119 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.3 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -51.9 -51.7 -51.9 -50.9 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 56 57 59 62 64 66 64 60 56 50 46 46 45 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 17 16 16 17 17 18 19 19 18 15 850 MB ENV VOR 34 34 34 32 27 34 49 59 76 104 120 119 109 200 MB DIV 14 -4 -5 -17 -8 1 35 34 46 15 31 36 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 1 2 LAND (KM) 2125 2198 2270 2243 2188 2105 2009 1954 1923 1931 1944 2003 2069 LAT (DEG N) 16.9 16.7 16.4 16.3 16.2 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.4 16.5 16.4 17.0 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 132.0 132.7 133.3 133.9 134.4 135.2 136.1 136.6 136.9 136.8 136.7 136.0 135.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 7 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 2 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 0 3 9 10 5 1 1 1 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):255/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 508 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 26.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 44.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##