* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/18/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 32 35 38 46 52 54 56 55 53 47 42 V (KT) LAND 30 30 32 35 38 46 52 54 56 55 53 47 42 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 31 31 31 30 29 28 27 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 15 15 16 12 15 14 11 17 12 4 7 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -1 2 2 0 -2 -1 1 0 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 64 67 68 69 78 76 45 81 113 102 111 169 274 SST (C) 29.1 28.9 28.6 28.3 28.1 27.5 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.0 24.8 23.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 154 152 148 145 143 136 133 130 127 123 111 97 86 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.6 -50.6 -51.1 -50.7 -51.4 -50.1 -50.4 -49.9 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 1 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 76 75 75 77 76 76 71 70 63 62 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 25 27 27 27 31 33 34 35 35 35 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR 46 66 78 83 86 107 95 113 112 112 91 85 71 200 MB DIV 45 70 77 57 66 84 70 62 34 65 1 -6 13 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -2 -2 -1 0 3 0 -4 -2 -5 0 0 LAND (KM) 1051 1072 1085 1085 1086 1059 1038 1005 972 917 863 882 928 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.0 17.3 17.6 18.4 19.0 19.6 20.4 21.6 23.4 25.0 26.5 LONG(DEG W) 117.4 118.0 118.6 119.0 119.4 119.9 120.2 120.3 120.5 121.0 122.1 123.3 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 4 5 8 10 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 13 12 12 10 9 5 3 2 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 28.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 37.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -15. -15. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 6. 12. 16. 19. 20. 20. 20. 16. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -8. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 5. 8. 16. 22. 24. 26. 25. 23. 17. 12. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 63.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 32.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##