* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 27 28 29 29 29 30 30 31 30 29 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 27 28 29 29 29 30 30 31 30 29 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 24 24 24 25 25 24 24 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 9 6 8 9 10 20 27 27 24 22 29 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 2 2 2 3 -2 -1 -2 -3 4 1 5 SHEAR DIR 104 112 115 95 105 93 67 88 87 105 85 96 97 SST (C) 27.2 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.3 27.3 POT. INT. (KT) 132 133 134 135 135 136 136 135 135 134 133 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -52.0 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 59 60 63 64 66 68 68 67 61 57 52 51 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 31 47 50 54 62 52 57 71 97 109 112 56 200 MB DIV 4 21 0 14 18 27 4 33 37 65 74 64 69 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 4 5 5 3 1 1 LAND (KM) 1361 1367 1373 1371 1370 1400 1447 1479 1508 1546 1590 1624 1633 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 2 2 1 2 2 1 2 2 2 1 1 HEAT CONTENT 20 25 29 30 31 26 24 26 25 25 22 21 15 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):235/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 0.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 12. 17. 21. 24. 26. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -11. -14. -15. -17. -18. -19. -18. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 27.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 0.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##