* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 46 45 46 45 44 41 42 41 42 40 35 V (KT) LAND 45 45 46 45 46 45 44 41 42 41 42 40 35 V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 47 47 47 46 45 43 41 39 38 37 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 9 8 9 9 21 18 20 15 17 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 2 -2 0 3 2 3 SHEAR DIR 114 126 105 119 113 92 67 84 75 94 70 68 70 SST (C) 26.2 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.2 25.8 POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 126 126 125 123 122 120 120 123 123 120 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.2 -52.1 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 -51.9 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 58 60 64 65 65 66 63 58 52 49 46 49 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 16 16 16 15 16 18 18 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 32 28 27 20 19 37 42 61 80 106 96 99 71 200 MB DIV 0 11 -9 0 -2 10 14 31 29 49 38 48 38 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 2 2 -1 0 -2 LAND (KM) 2212 2277 2243 2191 2139 2045 1993 1980 1977 1977 1980 2028 2093 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.3 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.2 16.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 132.7 133.3 133.9 134.4 134.9 135.8 136.3 136.4 136.4 136.4 136.4 135.8 135.0 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 5 5 3 2 0 0 0 2 5 6 HEAT CONTENT 10 0 10 10 11 11 9 7 3 3 7 7 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 3. 3. 3. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -3. -4. -3. -5. -10. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 80.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 45.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##