* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/18/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 50 52 53 49 48 46 39 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 38 44 50 52 53 49 48 46 39 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 31 32 32 32 31 31 29 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 16 17 18 10 17 7 7 6 2 1 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 1 2 -1 5 -2 3 3 3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 71 75 76 80 87 70 57 94 86 124 178 263 218 SST (C) 29.1 28.8 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.2 26.9 26.4 25.9 24.8 23.7 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 154 151 147 144 141 137 133 130 126 122 110 99 88 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.3 -51.6 -51.8 -51.6 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3 -50.8 -50.8 -50.5 -50.4 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 77 78 75 76 78 74 72 68 67 64 63 61 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 24 25 25 25 27 29 32 33 33 32 31 31 27 850 MB ENV VOR 65 79 83 87 101 112 123 139 129 110 89 61 50 200 MB DIV 68 77 80 61 61 54 75 44 21 7 20 -2 0 700-850 TADV -2 -1 -2 -1 0 0 -3 -3 -4 -3 -1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1074 1088 1102 1103 1107 1074 1045 1022 993 950 942 969 1034 LAT (DEG N) 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.4 17.7 18.3 18.9 19.6 20.6 21.7 23.2 24.5 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 117.7 118.4 119.0 119.4 119.8 120.0 120.2 120.5 120.9 121.6 122.9 124.0 125.2 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 6 5 4 3 4 4 6 8 9 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 52 42 35 27 30 16 16 18 21 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 615 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 17. 20. 21. 22. 21. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 7. 12. 13. 14. 11. 11. 10. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 14. 20. 22. 23. 19. 18. 16. 9. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 117.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 69.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.6 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/18/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##