* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 31 33 36 38 39 40 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 27 29 30 31 33 36 38 39 40 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 23 24 25 25 26 27 28 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 8 10 10 11 11 17 23 18 16 16 19 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 3 2 3 2 0 -1 -5 -2 -3 0 1 3 SHEAR DIR 108 104 97 102 103 57 81 104 103 101 98 105 115 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.6 27.7 27.9 28.3 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 134 135 137 138 138 138 139 139 140 142 146 145 146 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.0 -53.2 -53.3 -53.1 -53.0 -52.6 -52.4 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 700-500 MB RH 58 59 62 63 63 63 58 57 53 50 48 47 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 38 29 22 22 11 -3 9 -5 9 10 28 28 200 MB DIV 10 7 9 16 32 13 -3 -10 -2 0 15 7 32 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 2 1 2 1 0 -1 LAND (KM) 1342 1315 1288 1247 1208 1124 1031 956 898 854 844 857 859 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.1 13.9 13.8 13.7 13.5 13.4 13.1 12.7 12.3 11.8 11.4 11.3 LONG(DEG W) 143.4 143.8 144.2 144.7 145.2 146.3 147.5 148.8 150.2 151.5 152.8 153.7 154.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 7 6 3 2 HEAT CONTENT 22 28 29 33 35 32 21 32 38 37 1 2 2 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):245/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 5.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -6. -10. -13. -14. -15. -17. -18. -17. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 29.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 3.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##