* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 62 62 61 59 57 54 54 52 46 40 V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 62 62 61 59 57 54 54 52 46 40 V (KT) LGE mod 55 60 63 64 64 61 58 55 52 49 48 46 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 6 10 15 24 12 19 11 19 22 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 0 0 -1 -1 3 0 3 4 1 8 SHEAR DIR 114 108 116 112 113 62 76 63 80 77 65 65 79 SST (C) 26.4 26.5 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 126 126 126 127 127 125 123 122 122 122 123 123 122 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.1 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -51.3 -51.9 -51.2 -51.0 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 62 64 65 66 67 64 60 54 50 48 48 49 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 17 17 17 18 18 19 20 20 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 24 20 15 16 25 44 51 69 95 108 105 87 78 200 MB DIV 1 -13 6 6 12 29 28 44 53 63 48 43 30 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 0 4 4 1 -1 2 4 0 LAND (KM) 2289 2267 2217 2165 2113 2027 2014 2011 1993 1993 2011 2037 2049 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 16.0 15.9 15.9 15.9 16.0 16.1 16.2 16.1 16.1 16.2 16.4 16.8 LONG(DEG W) 133.2 133.7 134.2 134.7 135.2 136.0 136.1 136.1 136.3 136.3 136.1 135.8 135.6 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 5 4 2 0 0 1 1 1 2 2 HEAT CONTENT 8 10 11 12 12 12 10 10 8 8 10 5 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 75.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 6. 5. 2. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. -1. -1. -3. -9. -15. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 66.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##