* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWELVE EP122014 08/19/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 38 42 45 48 52 52 50 47 45 39 30 V (KT) LAND 35 37 38 42 45 48 52 52 50 47 45 39 30 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 38 39 40 41 40 38 36 33 30 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 12 10 14 18 13 15 10 7 2 2 5 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 0 2 1 0 5 3 4 5 0 -1 1 SHEAR DIR 76 57 59 75 63 100 67 76 99 165 189 313 268 SST (C) 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.5 26.2 25.4 24.2 23.2 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 148 145 142 140 135 131 126 124 117 104 93 85 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -50.8 -51.3 -50.4 -51.1 -50.5 -50.7 -50.3 -50.3 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 78 75 78 79 78 76 72 69 64 64 63 65 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 25 25 25 28 28 29 31 32 32 30 30 28 23 850 MB ENV VOR 80 86 89 96 98 98 121 117 108 75 56 62 65 200 MB DIV 74 77 78 74 70 65 77 16 37 -8 29 1 39 700-850 TADV -1 -3 -3 -1 -1 0 0 -5 -2 -4 0 -1 1 LAND (KM) 1085 1097 1112 1108 1105 1075 1050 1038 1006 987 1009 1075 1121 LAT (DEG N) 16.8 17.1 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.6 19.3 20.2 21.1 22.3 23.7 24.9 25.8 LONG(DEG W) 118.3 118.9 119.4 119.7 120.0 120.3 120.6 121.1 121.7 122.7 124.0 125.3 126.4 STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 5 6 9 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 42 36 28 34 25 14 12 12 20 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 24.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 4. 8. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 15. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -13. -14. -14. -15. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 4. 5. 9. 11. 10. 8. 8. 4. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 7. 10. 13. 17. 17. 15. 12. 10. 4. -5. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 TWELVE 08/19/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 33.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 74.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 TWELVE 08/19/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##