* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 50 47 45 42 42 39 36 32 28 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 50 50 47 45 42 42 39 36 32 28 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 49 48 47 45 43 41 39 37 35 33 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 9 9 11 14 19 21 19 16 18 14 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 -1 0 0 1 1 0 1 2 5 5 7 SHEAR DIR 106 103 98 95 76 54 62 76 80 60 71 71 94 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.5 26.7 26.5 26.2 26.1 25.9 POT. INT. (KT) 128 129 128 129 129 127 124 124 126 125 122 122 120 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -51.6 -51.0 -51.2 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.6 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 3 700-500 MB RH 63 63 65 65 67 62 59 54 54 50 52 51 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 20 20 20 21 20 22 20 18 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 20 12 13 14 28 34 59 76 103 101 110 84 61 200 MB DIV -22 1 10 19 18 14 43 35 42 37 74 48 52 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 1 3 1 2 0 4 3 1 LAND (KM) 2274 2218 2162 2121 2079 2014 1970 1980 2014 2037 2062 2126 2204 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.6 15.6 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.7 16.0 16.7 17.1 17.4 LONG(DEG W) 133.7 134.3 134.8 135.2 135.6 136.2 136.6 136.5 136.2 135.9 135.5 134.8 134.0 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 2 3 3 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 19 1 1 1 1 12 12 6 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 540 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 39.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 5. 3. 1. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. 0. 0. -3. -5. -8. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 78.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 5.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##