* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/19/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 56 58 62 61 59 51 44 39 32 26 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 56 58 62 61 59 51 44 39 32 26 V (KT) LGE mod 45 51 55 58 59 59 56 51 45 40 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 12 15 14 18 16 20 13 9 7 3 9 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 0 0 -1 0 3 1 6 2 4 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 62 73 79 75 78 61 88 78 89 114 279 300 268 SST (C) 28.5 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.9 26.5 26.0 25.0 23.8 22.9 22.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 145 142 139 138 133 130 127 122 113 100 90 83 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -51.0 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.9 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 77 78 78 78 75 74 69 66 63 65 64 64 63 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 26 27 27 28 31 31 31 28 26 24 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 80 81 89 90 91 113 117 103 81 51 82 86 80 200 MB DIV 70 78 79 67 43 62 72 32 -6 14 29 14 39 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -3 0 0 -1 -4 -3 -1 -1 0 3 6 LAND (KM) 1104 1105 1108 1102 1097 1085 1063 1052 1024 1039 1117 1214 1240 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.3 17.6 17.9 18.1 18.8 19.5 20.4 21.4 22.6 23.9 25.0 25.7 LONG(DEG W) 118.9 119.3 119.7 119.9 120.1 120.6 120.9 121.5 122.3 123.6 125.3 126.8 128.1 STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 4 3 4 4 4 6 8 9 9 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 10 9 8 4 2 14 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 538 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 9. 8. 6. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. 0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 3. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 7. 7. 3. 0. -2. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 13. 17. 16. 14. 6. -1. -6. -13. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 97.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 67.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##