* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST CP942014 08/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 27 29 33 38 43 44 44 V (KT) LAND 25 24 24 24 25 25 27 29 33 38 43 44 44 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 25 26 26 29 32 34 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 11 8 9 20 21 20 13 14 14 18 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 2 1 3 0 -3 -2 -1 -4 -1 1 7 SHEAR DIR 115 118 117 103 67 60 100 107 105 72 86 116 143 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.5 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 134 136 137 137 137 138 138 139 140 142 142 143 141 200 MB T (C) -53.2 -53.4 -53.0 -52.7 -52.8 -52.5 -52.2 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 700-500 MB RH 59 59 60 61 61 58 56 48 48 44 43 42 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 7 7 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 19 24 34 29 5 8 1 13 25 35 42 46 200 MB DIV 4 31 60 38 11 6 8 -10 -15 -5 18 17 33 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 -1 -2 -2 1 0 0 0 0 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 1280 1240 1202 1158 1115 1018 931 845 797 784 791 780 739 LAT (DEG N) 14.4 14.3 14.1 14.0 13.9 13.7 13.5 13.3 12.9 12.5 12.2 12.3 13.0 LONG(DEG W) 144.0 144.5 145.0 145.6 146.1 147.4 148.7 150.2 151.5 152.5 153.1 153.1 152.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 6 5 6 6 7 7 6 4 2 2 5 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 11 11 11 11 12 14 14 16 16 13 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 3 CX,CY: -2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 603 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 18. 22. 25. 28. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 12. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. -9. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 19. 19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP942014 INVEST 08/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.3 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 28.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP942014 INVEST 08/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##