* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 43 43 42 41 38 39 40 40 37 33 29 25 V (KT) LAND 45 43 43 42 41 38 39 40 40 37 33 29 25 V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 40 38 37 35 34 33 32 31 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 8 11 17 21 26 7 11 10 17 14 19 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -4 -2 4 5 4 5 10 6 1 SHEAR DIR 111 96 77 71 70 84 66 72 85 62 67 54 64 SST (C) 26.6 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.8 26.7 26.4 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 128 129 128 127 126 128 128 126 122 121 119 115 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -51.8 -51.7 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.4 -51.2 -51.1 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 4 4 700-500 MB RH 63 65 67 67 65 63 59 55 50 54 56 61 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 21 21 20 20 21 22 21 20 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 17 26 22 32 49 80 78 58 59 69 62 200 MB DIV -2 13 29 34 -2 19 30 34 60 51 63 34 37 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 2 1 2 0 1 LAND (KM) 2222 2177 2131 2088 2045 2007 2031 2097 2188 2258 2148 1964 1760 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.7 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.7 16.2 16.7 17.2 18.3 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 134.2 134.7 135.1 135.5 135.9 136.3 136.1 135.4 134.4 133.4 132.5 131.2 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 5 4 4 4 3 1 2 5 5 5 7 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 18 18 18 18 19 1 1 17 9 6 2 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 519 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 8. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 2. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -2. -3. -4. -7. -6. -5. -5. -8. -12. -16. -20. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##