* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/19/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 49 53 57 60 66 66 64 57 50 42 33 26 V (KT) LAND 45 49 53 57 60 66 66 64 57 50 42 33 26 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 54 54 54 51 48 45 40 36 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 10 12 16 15 10 10 2 4 4 7 11 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 -4 -3 5 1 7 0 -1 -3 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 74 84 90 73 72 59 91 39 81 84 330 308 274 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.0 26.7 26.2 25.2 24.1 23.2 22.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 141 138 136 134 131 129 125 114 103 94 86 82 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.9 -51.2 -51.3 -51.5 -50.4 -50.7 -49.8 -50.2 -49.7 -49.9 -49.9 -50.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 79 79 80 77 77 73 65 62 60 60 64 66 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 29 30 31 32 35 35 34 32 30 27 23 20 850 MB ENV VOR 78 83 82 84 91 126 134 125 95 74 88 84 84 200 MB DIV 81 81 78 66 89 90 14 49 -8 34 -7 17 -8 700-850 TADV -4 -2 0 -1 -2 0 -4 1 -2 0 1 1 9 LAND (KM) 1102 1110 1120 1117 1115 1108 1107 1078 1067 1109 1185 1235 1255 LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.3 18.6 19.2 19.9 21.0 22.3 23.5 24.5 25.7 26.8 LONG(DEG W) 119.5 119.9 120.3 120.6 120.8 121.2 121.7 122.6 123.7 125.0 126.3 128.0 129.8 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 4 4 4 4 6 8 8 8 9 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 9 7 4 3 1 23 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 511 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -2. -2. -2. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -13. -15. -15. -16. -15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 11. 10. 7. 5. 0. -5. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 12. 15. 21. 21. 19. 12. 5. -3. -12. -19. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 93.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 79.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 9% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##