* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 59 71 82 93 95 96 98 96 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 59 71 82 93 95 96 98 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 31 34 37 44 53 64 79 92 100 102 74 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 11 11 16 19 16 23 5 7 8 11 18 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 7 6 4 1 -1 -4 -5 -2 -1 -1 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 55 64 30 22 35 45 43 22 352 280 300 288 287 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.3 28.0 27.8 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.8 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 148 147 148 149 147 142 138 135 136 142 145 150 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 152 148 151 151 149 143 138 134 135 140 142 147 157 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -54.1 -54.2 -53.6 -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -52.8 -52.8 -52.4 -52.1 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 7 6 8 8 9 10 11 12 13 700-500 MB RH 67 69 72 72 73 75 72 68 66 63 59 52 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 11 13 15 18 17 19 17 18 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 85 86 87 91 89 86 78 68 62 45 48 39 34 200 MB DIV 20 49 55 60 58 76 66 80 67 27 33 22 21 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -3 -4 -3 -4 0 0 -1 2 3 4 LAND (KM) 545 511 478 481 501 421 254 234 388 277 150 15 11 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.6 9.7 10.0 10.3 10.9 11.8 12.9 14.2 15.5 16.8 18.2 19.6 LONG(DEG W) 50.5 51.5 52.4 53.5 54.5 56.7 58.9 61.2 63.5 65.9 68.3 70.9 73.5 STM SPEED (KT) 12 9 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 13 14 14 14 HEAT CONTENT 31 37 51 64 56 41 35 19 28 58 60 20 72 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ -3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 359 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 13. 13. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 5. 8. 8. 9. 7. 7. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 34. 46. 57. 68. 70. 71. 73. 71. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/19/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.5 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 47.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 33% is 2.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/19/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED