* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 44 43 43 42 45 43 42 37 31 29 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 44 43 43 42 45 43 42 37 31 29 V (KT) LGE mod 45 44 43 42 41 40 39 38 37 36 35 31 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 13 20 23 12 16 8 15 18 16 13 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 -4 -1 3 0 3 4 6 8 1 0 SHEAR DIR 109 86 67 63 69 87 65 105 54 84 74 84 14 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.0 25.7 25.1 24.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 128 128 126 124 124 124 128 125 122 114 102 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.6 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.6 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 4 4 5 700-500 MB RH 65 66 67 65 62 59 54 50 47 58 69 69 61 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 20 20 18 18 20 19 21 20 20 18 16 16 850 MB ENV VOR 12 16 22 22 30 55 65 93 82 91 111 100 81 200 MB DIV 15 28 22 -8 2 34 13 75 37 70 24 53 19 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 1 5 1 1 4 2 -4 -4 -10 LAND (KM) 2180 2149 2118 2079 2040 2006 1967 1967 2035 2233 1906 1659 1561 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.7 15.7 15.8 15.9 16.0 15.9 15.9 16.1 17.0 18.4 20.1 21.8 LONG(DEG W) 134.6 134.9 135.2 135.6 135.9 136.2 136.6 136.6 135.9 133.8 130.6 129.0 129.0 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 4 3 1 1 2 7 14 14 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 17 17 17 14 12 1 1 1 11 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 2. 3. 0. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. 0. -2. -3. -8. -14. -16. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##