* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/19/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 48 51 54 56 57 51 46 40 34 27 22 V (KT) LAND 45 46 48 51 54 56 57 51 46 40 34 27 22 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 46 44 42 40 36 33 30 29 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 12 12 10 10 11 6 8 3 9 6 9 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 -3 0 1 2 0 0 -5 -4 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 79 91 86 83 68 94 79 145 138 243 277 253 257 SST (C) 27.7 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.7 26.3 25.6 24.3 23.1 22.4 22.1 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 134 132 131 128 125 119 106 93 85 82 80 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -50.9 -50.9 -50.5 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -50.5 -50.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 700-500 MB RH 77 77 74 73 73 65 64 58 57 54 57 58 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 29 30 31 32 34 34 35 33 31 29 26 22 19 850 MB ENV VOR 80 86 89 94 116 144 144 120 99 67 95 97 93 200 MB DIV 62 73 90 93 104 61 36 -14 25 12 -1 5 17 700-850 TADV -4 -1 0 -1 -2 -1 -2 1 0 3 1 5 9 LAND (KM) 1097 1102 1108 1100 1093 1091 1074 1063 1088 1177 1227 1247 1303 LAT (DEG N) 18.1 18.4 18.7 19.0 19.3 19.9 20.7 21.9 23.4 24.7 25.6 26.4 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 120.1 120.5 120.8 121.0 121.1 121.5 122.2 123.3 124.7 126.3 127.7 129.2 130.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 4 3 3 4 7 9 10 9 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 8 6 4 3 2 1 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 492 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. 0. 1. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 5. 7. 9. 6. 4. 0. -4. -9. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 12. 6. 1. -5. -11. -18. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 84.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/19/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##