* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 29 33 39 45 57 68 78 84 87 87 86 87 V (KT) LAND 25 29 33 39 45 57 68 78 84 87 76 62 62 V (KT) LGE mod 25 28 30 33 36 42 50 61 73 85 81 64 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 14 20 21 19 21 14 9 7 16 18 26 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 7 6 2 0 -2 -1 -5 -4 -1 -3 -6 -7 -5 SHEAR DIR 57 26 17 31 42 37 29 332 298 304 281 297 284 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.2 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.3 POT. INT. (KT) 147 148 148 148 145 140 136 135 141 145 149 155 158 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 150 150 150 146 141 135 134 138 143 145 150 149 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -54.1 -53.5 -53.5 -54.2 -53.1 -53.5 -52.7 -53.1 -52.3 -52.3 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 9 10 12 12 12 700-500 MB RH 68 71 72 72 74 75 72 69 65 60 53 50 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 12 14 15 16 17 17 17 17 16 14 15 850 MB ENV VOR 88 90 96 95 92 87 72 61 58 38 37 12 17 200 MB DIV 46 64 77 48 74 58 83 58 43 15 34 13 32 700-850 TADV -1 -2 -3 -4 -4 -5 -1 -3 -2 -4 1 2 1 LAND (KM) 499 476 471 492 484 407 265 350 358 131 -7 22 151 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.7 9.9 10.2 10.5 11.3 12.6 13.9 15.4 16.8 18.4 20.0 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 51.5 52.5 53.4 54.4 55.3 57.3 59.4 61.6 63.9 66.3 68.9 71.5 73.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 10 10 10 12 12 13 13 14 15 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 34 45 53 49 42 37 38 39 39 51 80 55 46 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 461 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 14. 20. 32. 43. 53. 59. 62. 62. 61. 62. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 44.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 42.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.4 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/20/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)