* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 43 42 43 43 44 42 38 34 29 24 V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 43 42 43 43 44 42 38 34 29 24 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 45 44 42 40 39 39 38 35 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 15 21 24 24 11 13 8 17 16 14 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -3 -1 -1 1 0 4 6 4 5 0 0 SHEAR DIR 75 59 60 69 86 62 86 91 65 85 81 56 19 SST (C) 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.7 25.2 23.9 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 127 125 122 125 125 124 121 116 103 89 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.1 -51.8 -52.0 -51.0 -51.3 -50.4 -50.9 -50.7 -51.0 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 3 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 66 67 65 63 61 56 52 46 48 58 63 60 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 19 18 18 18 20 20 21 20 18 17 16 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 22 17 21 33 55 75 97 91 109 116 99 67 200 MB DIV 25 17 7 3 29 35 36 45 54 42 33 27 26 700-850 TADV 0 0 1 2 4 2 0 1 2 0 -3 -5 -9 LAND (KM) 2126 2096 2066 2039 2011 1998 2001 2029 2120 2164 1866 1611 1384 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.8 15.7 15.8 15.8 15.9 15.8 16.3 16.9 17.9 19.3 21.9 25.1 LONG(DEG W) 135.1 135.4 135.7 136.0 136.2 136.3 136.3 135.9 134.9 133.2 130.8 129.6 129.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 3 2 2 0 1 4 7 12 13 15 16 HEAT CONTENT 13 1 1 2 3 3 4 1 8 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 569 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 73.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 5. 4. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 1. -2. -3. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -3. -7. -11. -16. -21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##