* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 59 62 60 56 47 37 28 22 19 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 59 62 60 56 47 37 28 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 46 46 45 44 41 37 33 29 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 10 10 11 9 7 9 3 3 7 10 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 -1 -1 -1 1 0 0 -4 -1 -1 -4 SHEAR DIR 67 87 69 76 67 111 73 129 357 326 296 260 253 SST (C) 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.5 25.8 24.8 23.6 22.8 22.3 22.0 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 136 134 132 131 129 127 120 110 98 89 84 81 81 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.6 -51.8 -51.0 -50.6 -51.0 -49.8 -50.2 -49.7 -50.1 -50.2 -50.7 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 77 75 74 73 72 66 60 57 58 60 63 60 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 30 31 32 35 37 36 36 35 33 28 25 22 20 850 MB ENV VOR 80 88 92 112 127 130 137 115 98 105 112 102 92 200 MB DIV 65 73 82 112 62 20 48 -41 33 -10 17 19 31 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 -1 0 -1 -2 1 1 0 7 6 2 LAND (KM) 1098 1105 1112 1110 1108 1086 1076 1087 1145 1247 1273 1290 1300 LAT (DEG N) 18.5 18.8 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.4 21.5 22.8 24.1 25.1 25.8 26.8 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 120.5 120.8 121.1 121.3 121.5 122.0 123.1 124.3 125.7 127.2 128.8 130.3 131.7 STM SPEED (KT) 6 4 3 4 4 6 8 9 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 1 14 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 473 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 10.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 2. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. -1. 1. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -9. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 9. 8. 5. -1. -6. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 17. 15. 11. 2. -8. -17. -23. -26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 1.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 78.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 83.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 29% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##