* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 08/20/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 24 28 33 38 49 61 74 82 87 94 101 107 V (KT) LAND 20 24 28 33 38 49 61 74 82 87 94 101 107 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 24 26 31 37 44 53 64 77 91 104 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 8 9 9 10 10 6 7 9 10 8 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 0 -1 -1 -2 -1 -6 -4 -5 -5 0 SHEAR DIR 58 65 57 50 52 42 43 53 54 33 66 42 62 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.4 29.6 29.6 29.5 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 152 152 153 154 156 158 160 159 157 156 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.4 -53.9 -53.3 -53.7 -52.8 -53.3 -52.4 -53.1 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 77 79 79 79 79 81 81 82 80 80 78 77 77 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 6 7 7 8 9 10 11 13 16 20 24 850 MB ENV VOR 31 34 31 23 22 13 9 -8 2 6 15 30 34 200 MB DIV 102 102 87 89 77 75 78 58 84 83 105 93 149 700-850 TADV -1 -1 -2 -1 -2 -3 -2 -4 -2 -1 0 -4 -4 LAND (KM) 708 723 738 755 781 740 705 718 743 775 768 760 720 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.1 8.2 8.4 8.6 9.2 9.8 10.2 10.7 11.1 11.6 12.1 12.8 LONG(DEG W) 93.2 94.0 94.7 95.5 96.2 97.8 99.4 101.0 102.7 104.3 105.5 106.4 106.9 STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 18 15 14 14 14 9 13 24 25 29 51 67 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. 18. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 15. 19. 24. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 13. 18. 29. 41. 54. 62. 67. 74. 81. 87. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/20/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 92.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 52% is 3.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 29% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 20% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/20/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##