* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 32 37 46 56 68 74 78 80 82 82 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 32 37 46 56 68 74 78 80 71 56 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 29 33 39 49 61 74 84 90 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 18 21 19 16 20 10 9 6 10 14 15 21 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 4 1 -1 -2 -1 -5 -3 0 -3 -5 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 40 25 25 34 31 36 30 26 316 336 296 317 303 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.1 27.9 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.9 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 146 143 138 136 134 140 143 146 151 159 ADJ. POT. INT. 151 151 151 147 144 138 135 132 137 139 141 144 150 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -53.7 -53.6 -54.0 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -52.9 -52.8 -52.4 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 9 10 10 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 72 73 74 76 75 75 72 68 64 60 58 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 11 12 13 13 12 13 12 11 10 9 9 850 MB ENV VOR 87 95 95 93 93 85 68 63 40 46 35 24 22 200 MB DIV 60 53 36 64 73 62 92 67 17 16 6 11 -3 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -3 -4 -1 -4 -1 -1 -3 0 2 0 2 LAND (KM) 453 458 479 464 423 280 204 333 367 200 91 -15 33 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.8 10.1 10.5 10.8 11.7 12.6 13.7 14.9 16.1 17.3 18.4 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 52.5 53.5 54.5 55.5 56.5 58.6 60.6 62.7 64.7 66.8 68.9 71.2 73.2 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 12 12 12 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 15 11 8 6 8 9 4 3 4 4 7 88 18 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 13. 12. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 4. 2. 1. 0. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 7. 12. 21. 31. 43. 49. 53. 55. 57. 57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 123.6 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 9.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/20/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED