* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 43 42 42 43 43 44 41 38 32 28 24 V (KT) LAND 45 44 43 42 42 43 43 44 41 38 32 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 45 44 43 41 40 40 39 38 35 31 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 20 23 23 17 16 12 12 15 15 12 12 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 0 -1 0 -1 3 3 1 3 1 4 -4 SHEAR DIR 61 62 68 81 88 70 117 51 74 105 91 85 17 SST (C) 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.4 26.7 26.7 26.4 25.9 25.4 24.7 23.7 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 126 125 124 122 127 128 126 122 118 111 100 88 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -52.1 -52.2 -52.0 -51.1 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -51.1 -51.2 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 3 3 3 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 65 63 62 59 58 53 49 45 52 57 58 58 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 17 17 18 18 19 20 19 17 14 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 18 25 34 53 63 87 96 98 133 114 81 49 200 MB DIV 10 15 8 24 43 24 56 39 41 50 7 11 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 2 5 5 3 2 3 3 -2 -1 -6 0 LAND (KM) 2050 2028 2006 1990 1975 2014 2077 2144 2237 1991 1702 1479 1306 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 16.0 16.0 16.0 16.0 15.7 15.7 16.3 17.3 18.7 20.4 22.7 25.3 LONG(DEG W) 135.8 136.0 136.2 136.4 136.5 136.2 135.6 134.8 133.6 131.8 129.7 128.6 128.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 1 0 3 4 6 9 12 12 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 12 11 9 8 19 18 7 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 0. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -4. -7. -13. -17. -21. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 79.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##