* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 49 52 53 54 50 44 38 32 25 21 15 V (KT) LAND 45 46 49 52 53 54 50 44 38 32 25 21 15 V (KT) LGE mod 45 45 46 46 45 44 42 39 35 32 29 27 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 10 11 5 8 4 5 6 8 10 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 -5 -3 -1 2 -4 SHEAR DIR 88 88 62 62 98 83 112 148 226 240 254 224 217 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 27.1 26.9 26.8 26.3 25.7 24.5 23.4 22.6 22.2 21.9 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 134 132 132 130 129 125 120 107 96 86 83 81 83 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2 -50.6 -50.6 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 75 76 74 71 69 66 63 63 61 61 60 59 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 33 34 36 35 35 33 31 29 26 23 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 77 80 102 126 134 134 119 88 95 109 99 110 101 200 MB DIV 57 72 104 93 58 39 6 -3 19 8 7 0 5 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 1 1 1 2 2 1 LAND (KM) 1123 1122 1121 1115 1111 1088 1085 1110 1183 1234 1237 1253 1303 LAT (DEG N) 18.6 18.8 19.0 19.4 19.7 20.7 21.7 23.0 24.3 25.4 26.0 27.0 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 120.9 121.1 121.2 121.4 121.6 122.4 123.4 124.7 126.2 127.5 128.5 130.0 131.9 STM SPEED (KT) 3 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 9 6 7 10 10 HEAT CONTENT 19 16 14 9 18 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 478 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 2. 0. -4. -7. -11. -14. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 8. 9. 5. -1. -7. -13. -20. -24. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.9 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 15.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 76.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 21% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 8% is 1.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##