* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 08/20/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 36 47 58 67 74 76 77 77 76 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 36 47 58 67 74 76 77 77 76 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 29 33 39 46 54 63 73 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 7 7 10 10 12 9 8 9 11 13 9 16 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 -1 -1 -5 -4 -6 -3 -4 -2 -4 -3 SHEAR DIR 76 63 54 50 41 65 63 49 31 43 30 7 341 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 152 152 153 155 158 159 161 160 159 161 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -53.2 -53.7 -53.6 -53.6 -53.3 -53.0 -52.6 -52.3 -51.6 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 77 77 78 78 78 80 81 80 80 79 78 78 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 30 33 30 29 18 -4 -14 -10 4 20 41 65 200 MB DIV 107 96 85 94 81 77 78 74 113 112 143 138 105 700-850 TADV 0 0 -1 -2 -2 0 -2 -3 -3 -4 -5 -4 -6 LAND (KM) 704 715 728 739 755 698 664 681 706 701 660 618 549 LAT (DEG N) 7.9 8.1 8.3 8.6 8.9 9.6 10.2 10.7 11.2 11.9 12.7 13.7 15.2 LONG(DEG W) 93.1 93.9 94.7 95.5 96.3 97.9 99.5 101.3 103.0 104.5 105.6 106.6 107.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 9 8 7 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 4 8 11 6 2 4 12 30 34 12 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 576 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 87.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 23. 30. 35. 38. 41. 44. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 16. 17. 17. 16. 14. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 27. 38. 47. 54. 56. 57. 57. 56. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/20/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 92.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 41% is 3.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 26% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 13% is 2.9 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/20/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##