* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 38 49 58 69 75 79 81 83 83 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 38 49 58 69 75 79 47 48 48 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 36 45 56 69 80 49 49 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 14 15 14 13 14 10 10 8 12 13 20 17 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 4 0 -2 -3 -3 -1 -4 0 -4 -1 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 35 30 37 40 34 50 40 360 321 295 304 291 323 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 29.1 29.4 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 143 144 142 140 138 137 138 142 145 147 154 158 162 ADJ. POT. INT. 144 146 145 141 139 136 136 139 141 141 145 147 148 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.4 -53.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.2 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 12 11 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 71 72 71 72 70 68 67 61 58 54 55 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 12 12 13 13 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 98 100 94 93 93 84 65 57 38 46 20 28 10 200 MB DIV 54 42 62 65 70 85 65 47 5 27 10 13 14 700-850 TADV -5 -5 -6 -4 -5 -3 -4 -1 0 0 9 -1 0 LAND (KM) 627 640 590 498 382 314 422 271 143 26 -48 73 84 LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.6 14.5 15.6 16.8 18.1 19.3 20.5 21.6 LONG(DEG W) 52.7 54.0 55.3 56.7 58.0 60.6 63.1 65.4 67.7 69.8 71.8 73.5 75.1 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 13 14 13 12 12 11 11 10 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 8 7 8 6 3 4 4 5 5 86 9 1 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 22.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 36.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 12. 12. 11. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 13. 24. 33. 44. 50. 54. 56. 58. 58. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/20/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.9 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.0 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 118.0 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 58.6 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/20/2014 12 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)