* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 52 53 54 54 56 53 49 44 38 31 27 V (KT) LAND 50 52 52 53 54 54 56 53 49 44 38 31 27 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 52 51 50 50 48 45 41 35 30 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 26 25 21 17 14 9 20 16 15 14 9 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 -2 0 4 2 0 2 3 1 -1 -1 SHEAR DIR 56 66 74 79 71 82 47 64 87 89 78 43 278 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.0 26.8 26.3 25.8 25.2 24.2 23.0 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 126 125 126 128 129 131 130 126 121 116 105 93 83 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -51.2 -51.3 -50.6 -51.2 -51.0 -51.5 -51.0 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 64 63 63 62 60 54 50 53 62 64 67 64 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 19 19 20 19 18 17 16 14 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 24 30 46 44 48 55 56 99 130 105 90 89 200 MB DIV 13 -3 23 51 47 29 30 47 34 57 5 34 0 700-850 TADV -1 1 4 4 3 1 4 8 4 -2 -1 -7 4 LAND (KM) 1978 1977 1976 1987 1998 2074 2178 2280 2078 1842 1595 1459 1312 LAT (DEG N) 15.9 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.1 15.4 16.3 17.6 19.4 21.5 24.0 26.7 LONG(DEG W) 136.5 136.6 136.6 136.6 136.5 135.8 134.7 133.5 132.0 130.6 129.2 129.2 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 4 2 2 2 2 4 7 8 10 12 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 9 12 17 12 14 19 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 90.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 3. -1. -6. -12. -19. -23. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 12.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 85.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 74.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##