* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 50 52 54 54 46 37 30 24 20 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 45 47 50 52 54 54 46 37 30 24 20 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 46 46 46 46 45 42 37 32 28 26 24 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 7 5 7 9 10 8 9 5 7 4 12 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -1 -3 -4 3 -2 -3 -5 0 -5 -2 -2 SHEAR DIR 90 75 94 138 132 68 69 137 250 219 237 230 224 SST (C) 27.1 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.1 25.1 23.9 23.0 22.3 22.0 22.0 22.1 POT. INT. (KT) 132 131 129 128 126 123 113 101 91 84 81 80 80 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -51.7 -51.0 -51.2 -51.3 -49.9 -50.6 -50.4 -50.6 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 74 70 69 64 65 61 58 56 57 54 54 54 58 GFS VTEX (KT) 32 34 35 35 35 35 31 29 27 24 22 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR 73 97 123 136 132 145 127 104 84 124 130 116 109 200 MB DIV 72 94 102 67 28 52 -43 29 -4 13 11 5 2 700-850 TADV 0 -1 0 0 0 -2 -1 0 0 1 0 4 4 LAND (KM) 1112 1114 1117 1113 1101 1092 1103 1159 1234 1246 1257 1310 1378 LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.3 19.6 20.0 20.3 21.1 22.4 23.6 24.7 25.7 26.6 27.1 27.3 LONG(DEG W) 121.1 121.4 121.6 121.9 122.1 122.9 124.2 125.6 126.9 128.2 129.6 130.9 132.0 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 4 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 14 9 19 17 14 22 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 480 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 0. -1. -3. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 6. 7. 6. 6. 6. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -3. -1. 0. 2. 3. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. -3. -7. -10. -13. -16. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 13. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 9. 9. 1. -8. -15. -21. -25. -29. -34. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.3 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 84.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 82.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.1 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##