* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 08/20/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 24 27 31 43 56 71 79 89 97 100 107 V (KT) LAND 20 21 24 27 31 43 56 71 79 89 97 100 107 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 21 22 25 29 33 39 45 53 59 66 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 9 11 11 12 8 6 8 11 7 9 8 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 -1 0 -1 -3 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 -4 -5 SHEAR DIR 60 34 54 45 37 72 57 47 39 19 340 333 349 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.6 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 152 152 152 154 156 159 161 162 160 161 164 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.8 -53.4 -53.8 -54.0 -53.3 -53.8 -52.6 -53.2 -51.8 -52.2 -51.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 79 79 78 80 81 82 82 80 78 79 79 82 81 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 7 8 9 12 14 18 19 25 30 34 39 850 MB ENV VOR 39 40 35 40 38 23 3 0 3 20 43 81 91 200 MB DIV 103 96 92 90 76 94 74 113 100 145 142 143 108 700-850 TADV -2 -2 -1 -2 -1 -1 -3 -2 -3 -3 -6 -2 -4 LAND (KM) 709 703 705 722 693 640 602 599 599 563 535 516 523 LAT (DEG N) 8.2 8.6 8.9 9.2 9.5 10.2 10.9 11.6 12.3 13.2 14.1 15.2 16.4 LONG(DEG W) 94.0 94.7 95.4 96.2 96.9 98.3 99.9 101.5 103.1 104.5 105.8 107.2 108.8 STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 8 8 8 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 3 5 8 11 9 3 3 13 20 25 14 11 4 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 31. 35. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 15. 14. 12. 11. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 12. 18. 20. 27. 35. 39. 44. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 23. 36. 51. 59. 69. 77. 81. 87. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/20/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 131.7 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.2 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 91.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 22.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 30% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/20/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##