* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 59 66 70 72 75 78 81 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 35 40 49 59 66 69 71 74 77 81 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 38 47 57 65 71 74 77 80 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 15 14 17 16 4 9 11 14 22 16 16 13 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -3 0 -1 -4 -5 -6 -5 SHEAR DIR 44 46 39 31 32 340 348 318 304 302 333 317 324 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.7 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 140 137 137 138 142 145 148 150 152 155 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 143 141 138 137 137 139 140 141 141 141 140 147 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -53.4 -53.5 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 -52.6 -52.1 -52.0 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 10 10 11 11 12 11 11 700-500 MB RH 71 70 70 70 71 67 68 63 59 56 56 57 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 13 13 13 10 12 11 12 12 12 13 15 850 MB ENV VOR 103 90 84 84 81 54 41 23 15 0 -6 -7 18 200 MB DIV 58 63 66 75 90 77 41 9 7 18 24 11 33 700-850 TADV -6 -8 -7 -9 -10 -1 -5 -8 -5 -4 -2 0 -1 LAND (KM) 658 653 576 471 407 457 291 66 18 40 195 284 373 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.9 16.2 17.4 18.8 20.1 21.6 22.9 24.3 LONG(DEG W) 53.4 54.7 56.0 57.4 58.7 61.4 63.9 66.2 68.4 70.3 72.1 73.6 74.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 13 14 14 14 14 13 12 12 11 11 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 7 7 9 4 1 2 3 3 69 2 2 60 79 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 3. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 7. 7. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 10. 15. 24. 34. 41. 45. 47. 50. 53. 57. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.5 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.2 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 5.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 70.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 62.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.2 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/20/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)