* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 59 60 61 60 60 58 54 48 41 37 33 V (KT) LAND 55 58 59 60 61 60 60 58 54 48 41 37 33 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 60 60 59 58 57 56 54 50 44 39 33 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 30 29 23 18 15 10 13 16 17 16 8 4 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -1 0 5 1 2 5 4 2 -3 0 SHEAR DIR 60 70 79 80 68 94 46 54 78 81 59 290 269 SST (C) 26.5 26.6 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 26.9 26.4 25.9 25.3 24.3 22.8 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 125 128 129 132 131 128 123 117 107 93 83 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.7 -52.5 -51.4 -51.3 -50.9 -51.3 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 4 4 4 3 0 700-500 MB RH 64 62 62 60 55 52 50 54 60 64 63 60 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 18 18 18 19 19 19 17 16 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 24 26 38 39 34 45 41 51 93 86 71 56 54 200 MB DIV 3 13 29 15 10 23 0 56 55 29 4 19 -6 700-850 TADV 1 5 5 2 0 3 4 4 -2 -2 -10 6 9 LAND (KM) 1970 1973 1976 1992 2009 2087 2150 2272 2036 1772 1541 1396 1200 LAT (DEG N) 15.8 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.2 15.0 15.3 16.2 17.6 19.4 21.5 24.5 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 136.6 136.6 136.6 136.5 136.4 135.7 135.0 133.6 131.5 129.8 128.6 128.9 130.4 STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 2 2 2 3 6 10 12 12 13 17 19 HEAT CONTENT 11 17 17 11 14 19 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 5 CX,CY: -4/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 6.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -5. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 7. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 2. 2. 2. 0. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 3. -1. -7. -14. -18. -22. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 23.0 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 71.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 6.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 14.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##