* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 63 65 67 60 50 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 59 63 65 67 60 50 39 31 23 17 DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 61 62 62 59 52 44 38 33 30 27 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 2 6 6 9 12 5 5 4 10 13 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -4 -3 -1 1 -3 -5 -2 0 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 45 157 166 137 94 119 120 185 246 245 236 225 258 SST (C) 27.0 26.8 26.7 26.5 26.3 25.7 24.7 23.6 22.6 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 128 127 125 119 109 98 88 82 82 82 85 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.0 -50.7 -50.5 -50.4 -50.7 -50.8 -51.3 -51.2 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 71 69 65 63 62 55 56 54 55 55 55 47 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 33 35 35 36 36 33 29 26 24 20 18 17 16 850 MB ENV VOR 83 111 124 129 142 131 104 72 98 111 112 102 103 200 MB DIV 90 107 88 42 61 11 0 7 -5 8 0 13 -2 700-850 TADV -1 0 0 0 0 1 2 1 3 4 6 1 7 LAND (KM) 1118 1120 1122 1112 1102 1108 1136 1200 1279 1305 1373 1436 1514 LAT (DEG N) 19.3 19.6 19.8 20.3 20.7 21.6 22.7 23.9 25.1 25.8 26.1 26.7 27.4 LONG(DEG W) 121.4 121.6 121.8 122.2 122.6 123.6 124.8 126.2 127.8 129.3 130.7 132.2 133.8 STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 6 6 7 8 9 9 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 9 20 18 15 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 493 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -1. -4. -8. -11. -13. -16. -20. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 6. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 0. -5. -9. -12. -17. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 10. 12. 5. -5. -16. -24. -32. -38. -42. -44. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 17.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 77.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 80.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 27% is 3.1 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 19% is 3.2 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 14% is 3.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##