* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 08/20/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 53 59 60 60 59 60 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 31 38 46 53 59 60 60 59 60 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 21 22 23 26 30 34 38 42 48 53 60 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 8 11 14 15 13 13 11 14 12 10 22 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -4 -4 -2 -3 -2 -2 -2 -4 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 81 70 56 40 46 52 40 37 18 1 348 330 315 SST (C) 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.4 29.6 29.7 29.7 29.6 29.8 30.2 POT. INT. (KT) 152 152 152 153 154 155 158 160 161 161 160 164 169 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.4 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.2 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -51.0 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 7 8 9 9 700-500 MB RH 80 79 80 82 83 84 81 82 80 80 78 78 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 39 29 28 23 16 -1 -3 -12 6 15 44 68 101 200 MB DIV 117 139 119 96 90 76 90 98 129 138 125 120 126 700-850 TADV 1 0 -1 -1 -1 -1 -2 -2 -3 -2 -6 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 708 726 734 704 680 652 660 675 664 602 523 425 447 LAT (DEG N) 8.5 8.8 9.1 9.5 9.8 10.4 11.0 11.5 12.2 13.1 14.4 16.1 18.1 LONG(DEG W) 94.7 95.6 96.5 97.3 98.1 99.8 101.5 103.0 104.3 105.2 106.1 107.1 109.2 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 7 7 9 12 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 10 11 8 5 2 6 14 28 26 12 6 60 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 564 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 57.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 7. 15. 24. 31. 35. 39. 42. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 12. 11. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 26. 33. 39. 40. 40. 39. 40. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/20/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 112.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/20/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##