* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 54 60 64 65 70 72 76 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 34 38 46 54 58 63 63 68 71 75 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 37 44 50 56 60 63 68 71 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 15 16 9 7 10 16 15 23 15 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 0 -3 -4 -3 -3 -1 -4 -4 -6 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 38 32 23 28 22 329 292 307 298 325 319 332 303 SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.5 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.2 29.3 29.2 POT. INT. (KT) 138 137 137 138 138 141 145 148 149 152 154 156 154 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 139 139 139 138 140 142 141 138 138 137 136 133 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -53.8 -53.3 -53.2 -53.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 -52.5 -52.1 -52.3 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 8 8 9 9 11 11 11 11 11 9 9 700-500 MB RH 70 68 69 69 68 65 63 57 57 56 59 62 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 12 12 11 11 11 11 12 12 13 13 17 850 MB ENV VOR 87 74 71 70 66 45 34 0 -11 -29 -3 15 35 200 MB DIV 58 59 54 64 74 46 35 -2 7 11 24 30 48 700-850 TADV -12 -7 -6 -8 -7 -3 -3 -1 -7 -3 0 1 4 LAND (KM) 719 625 523 471 485 340 5 124 188 333 469 558 613 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.4 15.1 16.5 18.2 19.8 21.4 22.8 24.3 25.6 27.0 LONG(DEG W) 54.3 55.8 57.2 58.7 60.2 63.1 65.7 68.1 69.9 71.5 72.6 73.4 73.9 STM SPEED (KT) 13 15 16 16 16 15 14 13 11 10 8 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 33 23 24 37 47 38 21 73 83 46 32 42 37 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 718 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 5. 5. 2. 1. 0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 9. 13. 21. 29. 35. 39. 40. 45. 47. 51. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.8 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.7 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 32.8 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 61.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 11% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.3 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/21/2014 00 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)