* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 50 50 50 49 51 52 48 45 39 33 28 24 V (KT) LAND 50 50 50 50 49 51 52 48 45 39 33 28 24 V (KT) LGE mod 50 50 50 49 48 47 46 46 44 40 35 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 25 21 17 14 7 7 19 17 17 19 15 8 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -1 -2 0 4 2 1 2 7 2 6 0 1 SHEAR DIR 68 75 77 71 81 37 69 74 82 74 69 357 245 SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.8 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.0 25.8 25.1 24.1 22.4 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 123 126 127 129 131 130 128 124 122 115 105 89 85 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.2 -52.4 -52.4 -51.7 -51.7 -50.7 -51.1 -50.9 -51.5 -50.8 -50.8 -50.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 2 1 700-500 MB RH 61 62 59 54 55 50 47 53 61 60 55 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 19 19 18 19 18 19 20 18 17 16 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 29 39 35 30 33 27 31 69 106 93 71 55 47 200 MB DIV 15 32 24 40 55 27 55 27 45 15 1 -6 10 700-850 TADV 8 7 4 3 1 2 1 -1 -6 -11 -16 4 12 LAND (KM) 1985 1991 1997 2030 2063 2147 2185 2204 1912 1641 1467 1342 1247 LAT (DEG N) 16.0 15.8 15.6 15.4 15.1 15.4 15.9 17.0 18.3 20.1 22.2 25.3 28.8 LONG(DEG W) 136.4 136.4 136.4 136.2 135.9 135.0 134.5 133.0 130.6 128.8 128.2 129.2 131.6 STM SPEED (KT) 1 2 2 3 3 4 6 11 12 11 13 18 20 HEAT CONTENT 3 3 3 3 3 12 11 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 40/ 2 CX,CY: 1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 651 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -7. -7. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. -2. -5. -11. -17. -22. -26. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 76.9 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 33.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 77.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##