* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 60 61 61 56 46 38 29 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 58 60 61 61 56 46 38 29 21 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 57 58 59 58 55 49 43 38 34 31 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 10 6 7 6 7 5 3 7 10 13 17 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -5 -3 -3 0 -2 -4 -2 -3 -3 -1 -5 -2 SHEAR DIR 93 210 172 104 119 153 174 290 264 266 251 239 253 SST (C) 26.9 26.8 26.6 26.4 26.2 25.4 24.2 23.3 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 128 126 124 116 104 95 86 83 81 83 85 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.1 -50.9 -50.7 -50.2 -50.5 -50.0 -50.4 -50.2 -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 70 65 64 63 61 56 51 55 55 55 49 46 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 39 40 39 38 36 32 30 27 23 20 19 16 850 MB ENV VOR 95 112 118 135 132 122 94 81 112 116 111 111 99 200 MB DIV 90 67 36 43 40 29 8 -21 18 14 -5 -6 11 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 2 0 1 1 2 2 7 7 10 LAND (KM) 1121 1125 1120 1112 1107 1112 1156 1250 1298 1313 1347 1424 1532 LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.7 20.0 20.5 20.9 22.0 23.3 24.3 25.2 26.0 26.7 27.2 27.5 LONG(DEG W) 121.5 121.8 122.0 122.5 122.9 124.0 125.4 126.9 128.3 129.7 131.0 132.5 134.1 STM SPEED (KT) 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 8 7 7 7 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 16 13 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 495 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -5. -9. -12. -15. -17. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. 0. 2. 4. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -8. -10. -15. -19. -24. -25. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 6. 1. -9. -17. -26. -34. -42. -44. -50. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 72.2 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.5 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 11.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 55.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##