* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 08/21/14 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 35 38 46 55 60 63 63 62 63 63 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 35 38 46 55 60 63 63 62 63 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 32 34 38 44 50 57 64 70 77 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 14 13 12 8 4 5 12 11 14 10 6 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -4 -5 -5 -3 -3 -4 -1 -4 -6 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 45 22 16 28 33 347 317 311 295 291 317 316 203 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.9 30.0 30.0 29.8 29.9 29.9 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 153 154 156 160 164 165 165 163 164 165 161 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -54.0 -54.2 -53.8 -53.2 -53.7 -52.5 -53.0 -51.8 -52.4 -50.8 -51.0 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 5 8 7 8 8 9 8 8 700-500 MB RH 81 82 83 84 84 82 82 81 80 79 78 79 78 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 45 50 42 35 26 13 17 17 46 54 87 103 121 200 MB DIV 140 115 79 76 88 79 117 87 144 128 139 113 80 700-850 TADV -1 -1 0 0 0 0 -4 -5 -11 -5 -5 -10 -2 LAND (KM) 603 607 577 531 492 453 441 450 429 445 467 576 609 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 10.0 10.5 11.0 11.5 12.3 13.2 13.9 14.7 15.5 16.4 17.3 17.9 LONG(DEG W) 94.6 95.5 96.3 97.2 98.0 99.8 101.6 103.3 104.9 106.4 108.1 110.1 112.4 STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 10 10 9 10 10 9 9 9 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 5 6 12 34 55 70 66 48 21 22 20 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 13. 21. 30. 35. 38. 38. 37. 38. 38. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 00 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 99.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 65.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 10% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##