* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 36 42 47 51 52 52 52 53 52 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 36 42 47 51 52 52 52 53 52 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 36 41 44 45 45 45 45 44 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 13 5 8 20 22 22 28 26 32 31 35 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -3 -2 -4 -6 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 22 4 7 342 324 322 311 310 307 324 313 317 308 SST (C) 27.7 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.2 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.4 29.1 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 135 136 138 139 142 144 147 149 153 157 157 151 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 138 139 141 141 140 139 138 138 135 129 122 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.8 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 -52.5 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 11 11 12 11 10 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 65 65 66 65 60 59 60 65 63 58 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 71 66 63 60 47 28 -6 -28 -23 14 39 66 57 200 MB DIV 57 57 57 54 47 50 16 35 24 46 35 54 20 700-850 TADV -6 -5 -10 -6 -5 -8 -3 4 -2 5 16 11 11 LAND (KM) 693 605 568 593 475 138 188 275 427 600 733 866 857 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.8 18.5 20.2 22.0 23.6 25.2 26.4 27.6 28.6 LONG(DEG W) 55.4 57.0 58.5 60.0 61.5 64.4 66.9 68.9 70.3 70.9 70.8 70.8 71.1 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 16 16 16 15 13 12 9 7 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 24 33 42 48 38 11 78 74 45 44 58 46 31 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 739 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 5. 3. 0. -4. -8. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 11. 17. 22. 26. 27. 27. 27. 28. 27. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/21/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.1 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.5 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 37.0 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.4 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 41.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 12% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 5% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/21/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/21/2014 06 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) PC4 UNAVAIL...MODEL SKILL DEGRADED