* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 42 40 39 39 40 40 39 36 31 23 18 15 V (KT) LAND 45 42 40 39 39 40 40 39 36 31 23 18 15 V (KT) LGE mod 45 42 40 38 37 36 36 36 34 31 27 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 21 16 15 12 7 13 13 15 17 16 11 10 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -3 -1 1 0 0 1 4 5 5 4 0 SHEAR DIR 80 82 80 95 90 63 66 94 86 68 49 27 254 SST (C) 26.6 26.8 26.9 26.9 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.7 25.1 24.2 22.5 21.8 POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 129 129 130 129 125 121 120 114 105 89 83 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.5 -52.6 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -50.8 -51.1 -51.0 -51.0 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 6 5 3 0 700-500 MB RH 63 59 53 50 50 46 51 53 55 53 49 50 50 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 19 19 19 18 15 13 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 26 19 29 35 37 75 120 114 94 63 29 35 200 MB DIV 16 11 19 22 19 38 48 29 24 5 25 -20 2 700-850 TADV 6 4 1 1 1 -1 1 -1 -7 -12 -10 -5 11 LAND (KM) 2004 2029 2054 2087 2119 2191 2256 2055 1826 1594 1393 1298 1186 LAT (DEG N) 15.7 15.6 15.4 15.4 15.3 15.7 16.6 17.7 18.7 20.3 22.4 25.2 28.4 LONG(DEG W) 136.3 136.1 135.9 135.6 135.3 134.5 133.3 131.8 129.9 128.4 127.5 128.3 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 3 3 3 6 8 10 10 11 12 16 19 HEAT CONTENT 2 2 2 1 13 17 7 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):100/ 2 CX,CY: 2/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 674 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 61.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. 3. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 7. 5. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. -3. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -6. -6. -6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -6. -9. -14. -22. -27. -30. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.5 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 4.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 47.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 68.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##