* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 63 63 62 54 45 34 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 60 62 63 63 62 54 45 34 25 18 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 62 62 61 57 50 43 38 34 30 28 25 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 5 4 5 5 9 6 3 5 7 10 12 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -5 -5 -3 -4 -3 -3 -3 -4 0 -1 -2 -7 SHEAR DIR 194 143 126 125 143 146 190 263 249 256 238 249 223 SST (C) 26.9 26.7 26.4 26.2 25.8 24.9 23.8 23.0 22.5 22.2 22.1 22.2 22.6 POT. INT. (KT) 130 129 126 124 120 111 100 91 85 83 82 83 86 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.3 -51.0 -50.3 -50.6 -50.6 -50.2 -50.1 -50.3 -50.5 -50.5 -50.3 -50.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 1 700-500 MB RH 66 65 63 60 55 54 52 55 55 52 45 43 39 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 38 38 37 37 34 32 28 26 23 19 18 16 850 MB ENV VOR 107 118 125 124 125 99 81 81 112 120 119 110 109 200 MB DIV 52 27 42 57 38 9 -18 -15 20 15 19 -1 -9 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 1 2 2 1 2 5 3 9 9 11 LAND (KM) 1141 1134 1120 1115 1115 1145 1210 1299 1324 1335 1362 1421 1512 LAT (DEG N) 19.5 20.0 20.4 20.9 21.4 22.4 23.7 24.5 25.1 25.9 26.8 27.6 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 121.8 122.2 122.5 123.0 123.5 124.7 126.2 127.5 128.6 129.9 131.3 132.8 134.3 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 7 9 8 6 6 7 8 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 16 13 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -5. -10. -15. -18. -20. -23. -27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 8. 7. 5. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -12. -12. -13. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -8. -13. -16. -20. -25. -26. -28. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 2. -6. -15. -26. -35. -42. -50. -53. -57. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 65.8 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 10.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##