* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 08/21/14 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 33 38 45 60 73 90 99 105 112 120 121 V (KT) LAND 25 28 33 38 45 60 73 90 99 105 112 120 121 V (KT) LGE mod 25 27 29 31 34 40 49 61 72 81 87 91 94 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 13 12 7 5 6 6 7 10 8 8 8 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 -5 -6 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 -3 0 0 SHEAR DIR 23 27 46 56 71 77 34 21 336 313 332 358 22 SST (C) 28.7 28.7 28.9 29.1 29.5 30.0 30.0 29.9 29.9 29.8 30.1 30.0 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 154 157 161 165 164 163 163 163 166 165 160 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -53.8 -53.3 -53.5 -53.1 -52.9 -52.5 -52.1 -51.4 -50.9 -50.2 -49.7 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 83 84 83 84 83 81 81 79 80 81 80 81 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 6 8 10 11 12 15 16 22 27 32 36 43 46 850 MB ENV VOR 50 48 41 36 28 24 17 23 43 60 84 96 110 200 MB DIV 119 82 83 78 84 92 118 121 152 148 128 120 67 700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 -1 0 -3 -1 -3 -3 -2 -1 -1 LAND (KM) 578 562 490 439 392 416 453 447 433 418 426 518 506 LAT (DEG N) 10.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 13 13 10 7 7 8 9 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 6 6 8 14 34 53 67 68 62 34 18 21 14 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 7 CX,CY: -4/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 11. 13. 22. 28. 34. 42. 50. 52. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. -3. -6. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 8. 13. 20. 36. 48. 65. 74. 80. 87. 95. 96. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 06 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 89.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 35% is 2.7 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##