* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 54 55 57 56 54 46 39 31 24 21 V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 54 55 57 56 54 46 39 31 24 21 V (KT) LGE mod 50 51 51 52 53 53 52 49 45 40 34 29 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 14 12 9 9 12 17 18 15 15 6 11 22 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -2 0 0 1 0 1 6 4 2 2 0 SHEAR DIR 76 69 74 76 54 45 77 66 79 75 5 311 247 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.2 26.7 26.2 25.8 25.6 24.6 23.2 22.1 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 129 130 131 133 134 129 125 121 119 110 96 86 90 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.1 -52.2 -51.1 -51.4 -50.6 -51.3 -51.0 -50.6 -50.3 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 2 1 700-500 MB RH 61 57 54 52 50 49 51 55 56 50 48 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 19 20 20 21 21 21 18 15 13 11 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 29 28 35 25 27 38 83 83 91 72 57 49 200 MB DIV 26 25 28 34 38 45 27 49 27 -8 6 13 15 700-850 TADV 3 0 1 2 1 0 0 -6 -3 -15 -3 11 15 LAND (KM) 1960 1988 2015 2049 2083 2162 2265 2094 1860 1658 1517 1356 1324 LAT (DEG N) 15.1 14.9 14.7 14.8 14.8 15.6 16.5 17.5 18.7 20.7 23.5 26.5 29.5 LONG(DEG W) 136.9 136.7 136.5 136.2 135.8 134.8 133.6 132.1 130.3 129.4 129.4 130.9 133.6 STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 2 3 5 7 8 10 10 12 15 18 19 HEAT CONTENT 4 5 5 3 2 17 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):180/ 2 CX,CY: 0/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 598 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -2. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 8. 6. 5. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 2. 4. 4. 5. 0. -3. -7. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 4. -4. -11. -19. -26. -29. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.4 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 3.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 6% is 1.4 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##