* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 68 67 64 53 42 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 67 68 67 64 53 42 31 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 68 69 68 66 59 51 43 37 33 29 26 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 4 9 5 6 3 7 9 10 21 21 25 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -4 -3 -4 -3 -2 -3 1 -4 -1 -3 SHEAR DIR 168 156 134 129 144 150 262 275 290 252 255 237 224 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.3 26.0 25.6 24.6 23.5 22.8 22.3 22.1 22.1 22.4 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 125 122 118 108 97 89 83 82 82 85 89 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.3 -50.6 -50.9 -50.9 -50.4 -50.5 -50.2 -50.4 -50.5 -50.7 -50.4 -50.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 1 2 2 700-500 MB RH 64 62 61 54 58 54 55 55 55 50 45 41 40 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 38 37 37 35 32 29 26 23 20 18 16 14 850 MB ENV VOR 101 113 110 113 111 78 59 116 112 113 101 85 71 200 MB DIV 16 28 57 48 0 15 -10 16 6 24 -1 15 9 700-850 TADV 2 0 2 1 2 2 0 2 1 4 9 12 5 LAND (KM) 1144 1137 1131 1137 1148 1194 1280 1344 1337 1357 1394 1466 1515 LAT (DEG N) 19.7 20.2 20.6 21.1 21.6 22.6 23.8 24.7 25.5 26.3 27.3 27.9 28.3 LONG(DEG W) 122.0 122.5 122.9 123.5 124.1 125.4 127.0 128.3 129.4 130.7 132.2 133.6 135.1 STM SPEED (KT) 4 6 6 7 8 8 9 7 7 8 7 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 2 15 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 570 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -24. -26. -29. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -7. -11. -16. -20. -23. -27. -28. -30. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 2. -1. -12. -23. -34. -45. -51. -57. -63. -68. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.7 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 8.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 71.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 71.4 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##