* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST EP922014 08/21/14 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 32 36 54 67 81 91 96 104 109 108 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 32 36 54 67 81 91 96 104 109 108 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 32 38 46 53 58 62 66 68 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 8 10 14 18 16 13 13 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -5 -6 -6 -1 0 -2 -2 -5 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 16 38 33 38 40 66 31 37 360 356 3 8 23 SST (C) 28.7 28.8 29.1 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.4 POT. INT. (KT) 152 155 158 161 163 163 162 158 160 163 163 159 149 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.0 -53.4 -53.6 -53.6 -52.6 -53.0 -51.5 -52.2 -50.8 -50.8 -49.8 -49.5 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 5 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 84 84 85 84 83 84 83 81 78 81 79 80 80 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 12 12 12 18 20 25 31 35 40 45 47 850 MB ENV VOR 44 34 26 15 9 13 23 35 47 76 92 94 103 200 MB DIV 90 80 95 79 69 148 130 152 128 122 83 80 23 700-850 TADV 0 2 2 0 -1 -2 -2 1 3 0 -4 0 -8 LAND (KM) 600 546 501 494 509 547 576 581 551 568 656 604 619 LAT (DEG N) 10.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 95.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 16 15 14 12 10 9 7 7 10 11 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 5 6 12 28 39 55 55 62 42 22 33 13 6 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 557 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 34. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 10. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -12. -13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 7. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 11. 15. 23. 31. 36. 44. 49. 50. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 1. -1. -3. -5. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 29. 42. 56. 66. 71. 79. 84. 83. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 12 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.2 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.0 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 18.0 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 82.6 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 36.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ -0.1 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 31% is 2.4 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 3% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 2% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP922014 INVEST 08/21/14 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##