* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * INVEST AL962014 08/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 42 46 50 53 54 56 56 55 55 55 54 V (KT) LAND 35 39 42 46 50 53 54 56 56 55 55 55 54 V (KT) LGE mod 35 39 44 48 51 58 61 61 60 60 60 61 61 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 4 9 14 14 26 22 28 19 28 23 27 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -5 -6 -6 3 0 -1 0 -2 0 0 1 SHEAR DIR 354 318 286 301 304 295 299 305 322 314 320 309 309 SST (C) 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.6 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.4 29.3 29.1 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 142 143 145 147 149 153 155 156 154 151 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 140 141 142 142 140 137 138 135 133 131 127 123 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.3 -53.3 -53.1 -52.7 -52.5 -52.2 -52.2 -52.3 -52.6 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 61 63 58 56 58 63 61 57 51 48 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 9 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 40 28 15 8 -30 -36 -36 2 16 31 29 26 200 MB DIV 33 49 35 35 47 0 26 28 39 24 24 28 37 700-850 TADV -7 0 -4 -8 -6 -7 1 -11 4 4 9 6 7 LAND (KM) 717 686 501 327 181 233 276 413 555 649 717 775 768 LAT (DEG N) 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.4 19.1 20.6 22.1 23.5 24.8 25.7 26.5 27.2 28.1 LONG(DEG W) 57.7 59.4 61.0 62.6 64.2 67.0 69.2 70.6 71.5 71.7 71.9 72.1 72.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 17 17 17 16 14 11 9 6 4 4 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 36 36 36 35 50 75 73 57 36 47 59 56 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 19 CX,CY: -12/ 13 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 45.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 21. 23. 24. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -4. -6. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 21. 21. 20. 20. 20. 19. ** 2013 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL962014 INVEST 08/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-49.5 to 33.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 2.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.2 Range: 28.8 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.2 Range: 37.5 to 2.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 43.2 to 93.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.3 Range: 28.4 to 139.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 38.6 Range: 0.0 to 155.1 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.8 Range:-23.1 to 181.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 33.0 Range: 15.3 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 2.1 times the sample mean(11.9%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 13% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 7.6%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 7% is 1.6 times the sample mean( 4.6%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 3.0%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL962014 INVEST 08/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL962014 INVEST 08/21/2014 18 UTC ** TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48) CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)