* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * KARINA EP112014 08/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 51 52 53 52 52 49 44 36 29 22 16 DIS V (KT) LAND 50 51 52 53 52 52 49 44 36 29 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 53 53 54 53 51 47 42 37 31 26 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 11 8 7 12 14 12 18 14 6 2 10 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -2 0 0 0 -2 2 2 5 6 5 1 0 SHEAR DIR 69 83 76 61 61 52 78 88 97 134 353 251 248 SST (C) 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.1 27.0 26.6 26.1 25.8 25.4 24.2 22.8 22.0 22.2 POT. INT. (KT) 130 131 133 132 132 128 124 121 118 106 91 83 85 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.5 -52.3 -52.3 -52.2 -51.2 -51.3 -51.2 -51.3 -50.8 -50.4 -49.9 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 5 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 57 53 51 47 46 46 48 49 50 48 48 46 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 19 19 19 19 20 19 18 14 11 8 6 3 850 MB ENV VOR 28 25 30 27 26 36 45 79 95 115 63 26 14 200 MB DIV 27 23 39 20 21 31 36 42 -2 15 -10 9 -7 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 0 0 0 -1 2 -6 -1 -1 26 18 LAND (KM) 1981 2013 2046 2075 2105 2175 2258 2063 1820 1610 1426 1312 1380 LAT (DEG N) 14.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 136.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 2 3 3 4 5 7 8 10 11 13 13 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 6 5 4 2 16 11 6 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):160/ 3 CX,CY: 1/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 60.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 0. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 6. 6. 8. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 2. 1. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. -1. -6. -14. -21. -28. -34. -41. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.7 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 6.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 17% is 1.3 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 1% is 0.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP112014 KARINA 08/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##