* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LOWELL EP122014 08/21/14 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 66 67 65 61 48 37 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 65 66 67 65 61 48 37 26 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 65 66 66 65 62 54 45 38 33 29 26 23 21 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 2 3 6 6 3 1 3 8 2 14 18 25 26 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -3 -2 0 1 -1 -2 4 -6 -3 -3 -4 SHEAR DIR 171 82 129 118 109 114 204 290 264 243 253 225 227 SST (C) 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.0 23.2 22.5 22.2 22.0 22.2 22.6 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 122 119 113 102 93 86 83 81 83 87 91 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -50.6 -50.0 -50.0 -50.0 -50.3 -50.2 -50.1 -50.0 -49.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 5 5 4 3 3 2 1 1 1 1 2 700-500 MB RH 63 60 55 55 52 50 51 51 51 48 48 45 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 38 38 38 37 36 32 29 26 24 20 19 17 15 850 MB ENV VOR 103 112 110 105 99 73 96 119 129 111 92 81 72 200 MB DIV 17 57 66 -2 -9 -11 7 11 4 9 0 10 0 700-850 TADV 0 1 2 1 3 0 0 2 1 6 9 6 12 LAND (KM) 1101 1101 1106 1121 1143 1215 1297 1324 1320 1340 1408 1458 1555 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.8 21.2 21.8 22.3 23.4 24.3 25.1 26.0 26.9 27.8 28.3 28.7 LONG(DEG W) 122.1 122.7 123.2 123.9 124.6 126.1 127.4 128.6 129.8 131.1 132.8 134.4 135.9 STM SPEED (KT) 6 7 7 9 9 8 7 7 7 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 4 CX,CY: -1/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 85.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -1. -2. -6. -11. -17. -23. -26. -28. -30. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 11. 10. 7. 4. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -1. 0. 1. 4. 5. 6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -8. -12. -16. -20. -24. -27. -28. -29. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 0. -4. -17. -28. -39. -49. -56. -62. -67. -72. ** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 18 UTC ** ( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 56.1 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7 Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 7.6 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.8 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 73.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0 Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 24% is 1.8 times the sample mean(13.1%) Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 22% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%) Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times the sample mean( 6.0%) Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP122014 LOWELL 08/21/14 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##